| 6/14/2023 | Previous Day's Closing Price | Today Close | % CHANGE SINCE THE PRE-TRADING DAY CLOSE | CHANGE SINCE PRE-TRADING DAY CLOSE | |
| SPX | .INX | 4369.01 | 4372.59 | 0.08% | 3.58 |
| SPY | 436.66 | 437.18 | 0.12% | 0.52 | |
| QQQ | 363.26 | 365.9 | 0.73% | 2.64 | |
| TQQQ | 39.35 | 40.19 | 2.13% | 0.84 | |
| SQQQ | 20.22 | 19.78 | -2.18% | -0.44 | |
| SOXX | 509.27 | 516.5 | 1.42% | 7.23 | |
| SOXL | 25.56 | 26.64 | 4.23% | 1.08 | |
| SOXS | 9.95 | 9.55 | -4.02% | -0.4 | |
| DIA | 342.62 | 340.42 | -0.64% | -2.2 | |
| RUSSELL 2000 | IWM | 187.93 | 185.91 | -1.07% | -2.02 |
| DOW TRANSPORTATION | IYT | 236.07 | 239.02 | 1.25% | 2.95 |
| FINANCIAL | XLF | 33.34 | 33.21 | -0.39% | -0.13 |
| ENERGY | XLE | 80.93 | 80.1 | -1.03% | -0.83 |
| BIOTECH | XBI | 90.23 | 88.89 | -1.49% | -1.34 |
| CONSUMER STAPLE | XLP | 73.39 | 73.84 | 0.61% | 0.45 |
| HEALTH CARE | XLV | 131.55 | 130.2 | -1.03% | -1.35 |
| CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY | XLY | 165.67 | 165.55 | -0.07% | -0.12 |
| HOMEBUILDER | XHB | 76.54 | 75.53 | -1.32% | -1.01 |
| UTILITY | XLU | 66.26 | 66.22 | -0.06% | -0.04 |
| RETAIL | XRT | 63.55 | 62.65 | -1.42% | -0.9 |
| EMERGING MARKETS | SPEM | 35.1 | 35.39 | 0.83% | 0.29 |
| SOUTH KOREA INDEX | EWY | 67.51 | 66.88 | -0.93% | -0.63 |
| SOUTH KOREA 3X BULL | KORU | 11.25 | 10.95 | -2.67% | -0.3 |
| ARKK | 44.29 | 44.07 | -0.50% | -0.22 | |
| Currency:BTCUSD | /BTC | 25880 | 24940 | -3.63% | -940 |
| CRUDE OIL | /CL | 69.28 | 68.68 | -0.87% | -0.6 |
| GLD | 180.54 | 180.64 | 0.06% | 0.1 | |
| SLV | 21.74 | 21.97 | 1.06% | 0.23 | |
| GDX | 30.89 | 30.87 | -0.06% | -0.02 | |
| 3 MONTH | US3M | 5.36 | 5.36 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| 2 YR | US2Y | 4.67 | 4.74 | 1.50% | 0.07 |
| 5 YR | FVX | 4.021 | 4.009 | -0.30% | -0.12 |
| 10 YR | TNX | 3.839 | 3.796 | -1.12% | -0.43 |
| 30 YR | TYX | 3.941 | 3.881 | -1.52% | -0.6 |
| 10Y3M (10yr 3m spread) | -1.52 | -1.53 | -0.66% | -0.01 | |
| 10Y2Y (10yr 2yr spread) | -0.83 | -0.91 | -9.64% | -0.08 | |
| AAPL | 183.31 | 183.95 | 0.35% | 0.64 | |
| MSFT | 334.29 | 337.34 | 0.91% | 3.05 | |
| AMZN | 126.66 | 126.42 | -0.19% | -0.24 | |
| GOOGL | 123.83 | 123.67 | -0.13% | -0.16 | |
| TSLA | 258.71 | 256.79 | -0.74% | -1.92 | |
| NVDA | 410.22 | 429.97 | 4.81% | 19.75 |
Dow -232.79 at 33979.24, Nasdaq +53.16 at 13626.86, S&P +3.58 at 4373.86
The major indices hung around in fairly narrow ranges until the much anticipated FOMC decision at 2:00 p.m. ET and Fed Chair Powell's press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET induced some whipsaw action.
The FOMC voted unanimously to hold the target range for the fed funds rate steady at 5.00-5.25%, yet stocks declined with the release of the Summary of Economic Projections, which showed an upward adjustment in the 2023 median estimate for the fed funds rate to 5.60% from 5.10%.
The market started to climb again as Fed Chair Powell's press conference got underway. Stocks recovered after Fed Chair Powell said that the July meeting is a "live" meeting (for looking at a possible policy change), but one that isn't being pre-determined.
In other words, a rate hike in July isn't a sure thing. Note that there are four more FOMC meetings this year (July, September, November, December), so the Fed doesn't have to frontload an additional 50 basis points of rate hikes. Arguably, the stock market is making some allowance for the possibility that the Fed might not push the policy rate as far as the dot-plot suggests it might go this year.
The mega cap stocks helped the S&P 500 and Nasdaq close with gains, yet there wasn't much concerted selling under the index surface. The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (MGK) rose 0.6% while the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) fell by a modest 0.2% after being up as much as 0.6% earlier in the day. The S&P 500 for its part settled the session roughly unchanged from where it was trading just before the 2:00 p.m. ET policy directive was released.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.7%), held down by a sizable loss in UnitedHealth (UNH 459.86, -31.45, -6.4%) after the company warned of rising costs, and the Russell 2000 (-1.2%) lagged the other major indices today.
Market breadth reflected an underlying negative bias, but only modestly so. Decliners led advancers by a roughly 5-to-3 margin at the NYSE and at the Nasdaq.
Most of the S&P 500 sectors closed with losses. The energy (-1.1%) and health care (-1.1%) sectors were the only laggards to decline more than 1.0%, the latter of which was weighed down by UnitedHealth and other managed care stocks. The information technology sector (+1.1%), meanwhile, was the best performer by a wide margin thanks to its mega cap and semiconductor components. The PHLX Semiconductor Index rose 1.5%.
The 2-yr note yield settled unchanged at 4.70% and the 10-yr note yield fell four basis points to 3.80% in a rollercoaster trade.
- Nasdaq Composite: +30.2% YTD
- S&P 500: +13.9% YTD
- Russell 2000: +6.4% YTD
- S&P Midcap 400: +5.6% YTD
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: +2.5% YTD
Reviewing today's economic data:
- The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index rose 7.2% with purchase applications jumping 8.0% and refinancing applications rising 6.0%.
- The Producer Price Index for final demand declined 0.3% month-over-month in May (Briefing.com consensus -0.1%) while the index for final demand, less foods and energy ("core PPI) increased 0.2% month-over-month, as expected.
- On a year-over-year basis, the index for final demand was up 1.1% year-over-year, versus 2.3% in April, and the index for final demand less foods and energy was up 2.8% year-over-year, versus 3.2% in April.
- The key takeaway from the report is the recognition that wholesale inflation is moving in the right direction, which should be pleasing to the Fed and a reprieve for corporate profit margins.
- Weekly EIA crude oil inventories showed a build of 7.92 million barrels following last week's draw of 451,000 barrels.
Looking ahead to Thursday, market participants will receive the following economic data:
- 8:30 a.m. ET: May Retail Sales (Briefing.com consensus 0.0%; prior 0.4%), Retail Sales ex-auto (Briefing.com consensus 0.1%; prior 0.4%); Weekly Initial (Briefing.com consensus 251,000; prior 261,000) and Continuing claims (prior 1.757 million); June Philadelphia Fed Index (Briefing.com consensus -13.0; prior -10.4); June Empire State Manufacturing (Briefing.com consensus -16.0; prior -31.8); May Export Price Index (prior 0.2%), Export Prices ex-ag. (prior 0.4%), Import Price Index (prior 0.4%), Import Prices ex-oil (prior 0.0%)
- 9:15 a.m. ET: May Industrial Production (Briefing.com consensus 0.1%; prior 0.5%), Capacity Utilization (Briefing.com consensus 79.7%; prior 79.7%)
- 10:00 a.m. ET: April Business Inventories (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%; prior -0.1%)
- 10:30 a.m. ET: Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories (prior +104 bcf)
- 4:00 p.m. ET: April Net Long-Term TIC Flows (prior $133.3 billion)
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