11/30/2022

	11/30/2022	Previous Day's Closing Price	Today Close	% CHANGE SINCE THE PRE-TRADING DAY CLOSE	CHANGE SINCE PRE-TRADING DAY CLOSE
SPX	.INX	3957.63	4080.11	3.09%	122.48
	SPY	395.23	407.68	3.15%	12.45
	QQQ	280.57	293.36	4.56%	12.79
	TQQQ	20.77	23.56	13.43%	2.79
	SQQQ	47.92	41.38	-13.65%	-6.54
	SOXX	366.07	388.03	6.00%	21.96
	SOXL	11.73	13.82	17.82%	2.09
	SOXS	36.53	30.01	-17.85%	-6.52
	DIA	338.48	346.15	2.27%	7.67
RUSSELL 2000	IWM	182.37	187.37	2.74%	5
DOW TRANSPORTATION	IYT	227.78	233.43	2.48%	5.65
FINANCIAL	XLF	35.7	36.31	1.71%	0.61
ENERGY	XLE	90.7	91.15	0.50%	0.45
BIOTECH	XBI	79.98	83.62	4.55%	3.64
CONSUMER STAPLE	XLP	75.67	77.19	2.01%	1.52
HEALTH CARE	XLV	135.78	139.02	2.39%	3.24
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY	XLY	141.3	146.17	3.45%	4.87
HOMEBUILDER	XHB	61.16	62.28	1.83%	1.12
UTILITY	XLU	69.69	71.43	2.50%	1.74
RETAIL	XRT	66	67.28	1.94%	1.28
EMERGING MARKETS	SPEM	33.46	34.41	2.84%	0.95
SOUTH KOREA INDEX	EWY	58.36	60.7	4.01%	2.34
SOUTH KOREA 3X BULL	KORU	8.27	9.26	11.97%	0.99
	ARKK	34.8	37.48	7.70%	2.68
BITCOIN	/BTC	16195	17110	5.65%	915
CRUDE OIL	/CL	78.91	80.49	2.00%	1.58
	GLD	162.73	164.81	1.28%	2.08
	SLV	19.56	20.43	4.45%	0.87
	GDX	28.15	29.05	3.20%	0.9
3 MONTH	US3M	4.38	4.37	-0.23%	-0.01
2 YR	US2Y	4.48	4.38	-2.23%	-0.10
5 YR	FVX	3.92	3.832	-2.24%	-0.88
10 YR	TNX	3.748	3.703	-1.20%	-0.45
30 YR	TYX	3.803	3.822	0.50%	0.19
	10Y3M (10yr 3m spread)	-0.63	-0.69	9.52%	-0.06
	10Y2Y (10yr 2yr spread)	-0.73	0.7	195.89%	1.43
	T2107 (% stock above 200MA)	46.1	48.61	5.44%	2.51
	T2108 (% stock above 40 MA)	69.57	74.08	6.48%	4.51
	AAPL	141.17	148.03	4.86%	6.86
	MSFT	240.33	255.14	6.16%	14.81
	AMZN	92.42	96.54	4.46%	4.12
	GOOGL	95.19	100.99	6.09%	5.8
	TSLA	180.83	194.7	7.67%	13.87
	NVDA	156.35	169.23	8.24%	12.88

*오늘 특이사항*

파월의 비둘기파 적인 멘트로 인한 강한 시장 상승. 50비피는 12월에 정해진 인상폭인걸로 판단.

200 평균선 돌파. 하지만 내일 민감한 지표가 많이 나온다.

지난 저점을 지킬지, 역실적 장세에서 또다른 저점을 갱신할지는 두고 봐야 하겠지만 블랙스완의 이벤트가 나오지 않는다면 소프트 랜딩으로 얕게 지나가는 경기 침체로 진행될 것으로 현재는 판단.

하지만 지금 시점에서 방심은 금물. 금융위기 이후 지난 10년간 5% 이상의 금리는 처음이다. 아직 인플레가 실질금리 보다 높은 상황. 인플레의 불씨가 완전히 꺼지기 위해서는 과거에는 페드 금리가 인플레를 넘어서 꽤 오랜 기간 눌러 줘야 했었음. 파월의장 멘트와 같이 아직 갈길이 멀다.

 

오늘의 시황 정리 

 

Dow +737.24 at 34593.59, Nasdaq +484.22 at 11407.85, S&P +122.48 at 4080.31

 

The stock market closed out November on a decidedly upbeat note. The main indices all logged big gains today and the S&P 500 was able to break above a key technical level, its 200-day moving average at 4,050. Market participants were reacting, or possibly overreacting, to the speech from Fed Chair Powell at 1:30 p.m. ET.

In front of Mr. Powell's remarks, the main indices were meandering around their flat lines until comments from Amazon.com (AMZN 96.54, +4.12, +4.5%) CEO Andrew Jassy precipitated a modest decline. He said at the DealBook Summit that "people are very much hunting for bargains" and noting that the economy is "a lot more uncertain" than previously thought. This played into the market's concerns that the Fed is going to raise rates too much and create a hard landing for the economy.

The tone of the market changed completely, however, with the release of Mr. Powell's speech. The market predominately reacted to the following key excerpt:

"Monetary policy affects the economy and inflation with uncertain lags, and the full effects of our rapid tightening so far are yet to be felt. Thus, it makes sense to moderate the pace of our rate increases as we approach the level of restraint that will be sufficient to bring inflation down. The time for moderating the pace of rate increases may come as soon as the December meeting."

The market rally that started mid-October was partially predicated on the notion that the Fed was apt to slow down the pace of rate hikes starting in December, which Mr. Powell's remarks corroborated. The fed funds futures market now prices in a 74.7% probability of a 50-basis point increase at the December meeting versus a 66.3% probability yesterday, according to the CME FedWatchTool.

Just about everything reversed course following the speech. Equities rallied, aided by short-covering activity, the U.S. Dollar Index fell, and buying picked up in the Treasury market. The U.S. Dollar Index was down 0.7% to 106.04. The 2-yr note yield fell nine basis points to 4.38% and the 10-yr note yield fell five basis points to 3.70%.

All 11 S&P 500 sectors closed in positive territory with gains ranging from 0.6% (energy) to 5.0% (information technology). Advancers led decliners by a greater than 6-to-1 margin at the NYSE and a greater than 3-to-1 margin at the Nasdaq.

Despite today's big rally, general growth concerns continue to fester. Market participants had a slate of economic data to digest, some of which piled onto the market's slowdown concerns.

The Chicago PMI reading for November (37.2) was particularly ugly looking, falling further into contractionary territory (i.e. sub-50 reading) than the market was expecting. China also reported weaker-than-expected Manufacturing PMI (48.0) and Non-Manufacturing PMI (46.7) readings that fell further into contraction territory.

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: -4.7% YTD
• S&P Midcap 400: -9.3% YTD
• Russell 2000: -16.0% YTD
• S&P 500: -14.4% YTD
• Nasdaq Composite: -26.7% YTD

Reviewing today's economic data:

• Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index fell 0.8% compared to last week with purchase applications rising 4% while refinancing applications fell 13%.
• Advanced report for international trade in goods reflected a $99.0 billion deficit in October following a revised $91.9 billion deficit in September (from $92.2 billion). The advanced report for retail inventories fell 0.2% in October after a revised 0.1% decline in September (from +0.4%). The advanced report for wholesale inventories showed a 0.8% build in October after a revised 0.6% build in September (from 0.8%).
• Q3 GDP was revised up to 2.9% from the advance estimate of 2.6%. The GDP Price Deflator was also revised up to 4.3% (Briefing.com consensus 4.1%) from the advance estimate of 4.1%.
• The key takeaway from the report is that growth was better than expected and inflation was higher than first thought.
• November Chicago PMI fell further into contractionary territory (i.e. sub-50 reading) with a reading of 37.2 in November (Briefing.com consensus 47.5) following a reading of 45.2 in October.
• JOLTS Job Openings totaled 10.334 million in October following a revised 10.687 million total in September (10.717 million).
• Pending home sales fell 4.6% in October (Briefing.com consensus -5.2%) following a revised 8.7% decline in September (from -10.2%).
• Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories showed a draw of 12.58 million barrels following last week's 3.69 million barrel draw.

Big Lots (BIG), Dollar General (DG), and Kroger (KR) are some of the companies reporting earnings ahead of Thursday's open.

Market participants will receive the following economic data Thursday:

• 8:30 a.m. ET: Weekly initial jobless claims (Briefing.com consensus 238,000; prior 240,000) and continuing claims (prior 1.551K)
• 8:30 a.m. ET: October Personal Income (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%; prior 0.4%), Personal Spending (Briefing.com consensus 0.8%; prior 0.6%), PCE Price Index (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%; prior 0.3%), core PCE Price Index (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%; prior 0.5%)
• 10:00 a.m. ET: November ISM Manufacturing Index (Briefing.com consensus 49.8%; prior 50.2%)
• 10:00 a.m. ET: October Construction Spending (Briefing.com consensus -0.2%; prior +0.2%)
• 10:30 a.m. ET: Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories (prior -80 bcf)

 

특이 종목 변동 사항

 

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