1/27/2023

	1/27/2023	Previous Day's Closing Price	Today Close	% CHANGE SINCE THE PRE-TRADING DAY CLOSE	CHANGE SINCE PRE-TRADING DAY CLOSE
SPX	.INX	4060.43	4070.56	0.25%	10.13
	SPY	404.75	405.68	0.23%	0.93
	QQQ	293.34	296.26	1.00%	2.92
	TQQQ	22.68	23.33	2.87%	0.65
	SQQQ	39.99	38.85	-2.85%	-1.14
	SOXX	409.71	407.1	-0.64%	-2.61
	SOXL	15.24	14.98	-1.71%	-0.26
	SOXS	23.17	23.62	1.94%	0.45
	DIA	339.36	339.61	0.07%	0.25
RUSSELL 2000	IWM	188.56	189.58	0.54%	1.02
DOW TRANSPORTATION	IYT	227.68	229.96	1.00%	2.28
FINANCIAL	XLF	36.25	36.25	0.00%	0
ENERGY	XLE	93.11	91.23	-2.02%	-1.88
BIOTECH	XBI	88.59	89.39	0.90%	0.8
CONSUMER STAPLE	XLP	73.07	72.86	-0.29%	-0.21
HEALTH CARE	XLV	133.77	132.86	-0.68%	-0.91
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY	XLY	144.61	147.89	2.27%	3.28
HOMEBUILDER	XHB	66.53	67.15	0.93%	0.62
UTILITY	XLU	68.89	68.89	0.00%	0
RETAIL	XRT	67.57	68.78	1.79%	1.21
EMERGING MARKETS	SPEM	36.44	36.17	-0.74%	-0.27
SOUTH KOREA INDEX	EWY	65.09	65.41	0.49%	0.32
SOUTH KOREA 3X BULL	KORU	11.2	11.41	1.88%	0.21
	ARKK	38.27	40.39	5.54%	2.12
BITCOIN	/BTC	23045	23315	1.17%	270
CRUDE OIL	/CL	81.1	79.44	-2.05%	-1.66
	GLD	179.47	179.22	-0.14%	-0.25
	SLV	21.99	21.68	-1.41%	-0.31
	GDX	32.76	32.31	-1.37%	-0.45
3 MONTH	US3M	4.71	4.71	0.00%	0
2 YR	US2Y	4.17	4.17	0.00%	0
5 YR	FVX	3.588	3.621	0.92%	0.33
10 YR	TNX	3.493	3.518	0.72%	0.25
30 YR	TYX	3.628	3.633	0.14%	0.05
	10Y3M (10yr 3m spread)	-1.26	-1.22	-3.17%	0.04
	10Y2Y (10yr 2yr spread)	-0.65	-0.68	-4.62%	-0.03
	T2107 (% stock above 200MA)	58.49	60.08	2.72%	1.59
	T2108 (% stock above 40 MA)	74.87	76.11	1.66%	1.24
	AAPL	143.96	145.93	1.37%	1.97
	MSFT	248	248.16	0.06%	0.16
	AMZN	99.22	102.24	3.04%	3.02
	GOOGL	97.52	99.37	1.90%	1.85
	TSLA	160.27	177.9	11.00%	17.63
	NVDA	198.02	203.65	2.84%	5.63

Dow +28.67 at 33978.03, Nasdaq +109.30 at 11621.72, S&P +10.13 at 4070.56

 

The stock market closed out the week on an upbeat note, notwithstanding some late day selling that cut into today's gains. Some early weakness was precipitated by an ugly earnings report and outlook from Intel (INTC 28.16, -1.93, -6.4%), disappointing guidance from KLA Corp. (KLAC 399.37, -29.39, -6.9%), an earnings miss by Chevron (CVX 179.45, -8.34, -4.4%), and a Q4 profit warning from Hasbro (HAS 58.61, -5.17, -8.1%).

Nonetheless, buyers again stepped in to buy the dip today supported by a continued rebound effort in the mega cap space. The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (MGK) closed with a gain of 1.0% versus a 0.2% gain in the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP). The main indices spent most of the afternoon on a steady climb that had the S&P 500 nearly brush up against the 4,100 level. 

Encouraging earnings results and/or guidance from the likes of American Express (AXP 172.31, +16.43, +10.5%), Visa (V 231.44, +6.73, +3.0%), and L3Harris Technologies (LHX 212.10, +15.56, +7.9%) helped offset the disappointing corporate news, along with some relatively pleasing inflation data in the December Personal Income and Spending Report.

Briefly, the PCE Price Index was up 0.1% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.0%) while the core-PCE Price Index, which excludes food and energy, was up 0.3%, as expected. That left the year-over-year changes at 5.0% and 4.4%, respectively, versus 5.5% and 4.7% in November.

Treasury yields initially spiked following the data release, likely driven by the understanding that inflation rates are still too high for the Fed's liking. Yields pulled back, however, to settle off their highs. The 10-yr note yield hit 3.55% shortly after the release, but settled the session at 3.52%. The 2-yr note yield, which is most sensitive to changes in the Fed funds rate, hit 4.24% after the release before pulling back to 4.21%.

Today's rally effort ran out of steam as the main indices took a sharp turn lower with about 15 minutes left in the session. There was no specific news catalyst for the selling. Market participants most likely wanted to take some money off the table following a big run and ahead of a big week of market moving catalyst next week that will include, among other things, the FOMC decision, earnings reports from more mega cap companies, and the January Employment Report.

Roughly half of the 11 S&P 500 sectors logged a gain led by the consumer discretionary (+2.3%) sector. The energy sector (-2.0%) was the worst performer by a wide margin due to falling oil prices and weakness in Chevron. WTI crude oil futures fell 2.0% to $79.45/bbl.

• Nasdaq Composite: +11.0% YTD
• Russell 2000: +8.5% YTD
• S&P Midcap 400: +7.8% YTD
• S&P 500: +6.0% YTD
• Dow Jones Industrial Average: +2.5% YTD

Reviewing today's economic data:

• December Personal Income 0.2% (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%); Prior was revised to 0.3% from 0.4%; December Personal Spending -0.2% (Briefing.com consensus -0.1%); Prior was revised to -0.1% from 0.1%;
• December PCE Prices 0.1% (Briefing.com consensus 0.0%); Prior 0.1%; December PCE Prices - Core 0.3% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%); Prior 0.2%
• The key takeaway from the report is that it showed a continued moderation of inflation pressures, although the inflation rates are still too high for the Fed's liking -- particularly services inflation which was up 0.5% month-over-month following a 0.3% increase in November -- and will keep the Fed in a vigilant, inflation-fighting mode.
• December Pending Home Sales 2.5% (Briefing.com consensus -1.0%); Prior was revised to -2.6% from -4.0%
• January Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - Final 64.9 (Briefing.com consensus 64.6); Prior 64.6
• The key takeaway from the report is that consumer sentiment picked up in January on better feelings about personal finances that stemmed from higher incomes and easing inflation, although it is also worth noting that two-thirds of consumers expect an economic downturn during the next year.

GE HealthCare (GEHC) will headline the earnings reports ahead of Monday's open. 

There is no U.S. economic data of note on Monday.