| 2/1/2023 | Previous Day's Closing Price | Today Close | % CHANGE SINCE THE PRE-TRADING DAY CLOSE | CHANGE SINCE PRE-TRADING DAY CLOSE | |
| SPX | .INX | 4076.6 | 4119.21 | 1.05% | 42.61 |
| SPY | 406.48 | 410.8 | 1.06% | 4.32 | |
| QQQ | 294.62 | 300.92 | 2.14% | 6.3 | |
| TQQQ | 22.91 | 24.39 | 6.46% | 1.48 | |
| SQQQ | 39.36 | 36.84 | -6.40% | -2.52 | |
| SOXX | 403.68 | 424.73 | 5.21% | 21.05 | |
| SOXL | 14.52 | 16.8 | 15.70% | 2.28 | |
| SOXS | 24.07 | 20.31 | -15.62% | -3.76 | |
| DIA | 340.83 | 340.87 | 0.01% | 0.04 | |
| RUSSELL 2000 | IWM | 191.48 | 194.49 | 1.57% | 3.01 |
| DOW TRANSPORTATION | IYT | 232.19 | 237.95 | 2.48% | 5.76 |
| FINANCIAL | XLF | 36.56 | 36.56 | 0.00% | 0 |
| ENERGY | XLE | 89.93 | 88.16 | -1.97% | -1.77 |
| BIOTECH | XBI | 88.9 | 89.74 | 0.94% | 0.84 |
| CONSUMER STAPLE | XLP | 73.74 | 74.33 | 0.80% | 0.59 |
| HEALTH CARE | XLV | 133.36 | 133.99 | 0.47% | 0.63 |
| CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY | XLY | 148.7 | 151.52 | 1.90% | 2.82 |
| HOMEBUILDER | XHB | 69.45 | 70.89 | 2.07% | 1.44 |
| UTILITY | XLU | 69.09 | 69.21 | 0.17% | 0.12 |
| RETAIL | XRT | 70.19 | 72.29 | 2.99% | 2.1 |
| EMERGING MARKETS | SPEM | 35.56 | 35.94 | 1.07% | 0.38 |
| SOUTH KOREA INDEX | EWY | 63.47 | 65.11 | 2.58% | 1.64 |
| SOUTH KOREA 3X BULL | KORU | 10.34 | 11.24 | 8.70% | 0.9 |
| ARKK | 39.93 | 41.69 | 4.41% | 1.76 | |
| BITCOIN | /BTC | 23120 | 23840 | 3.11% | 720 |
| CRUDE OIL | /CL | 79.03 | 76.7 | -2.95% | -2.33 |
| GLD | 179.41 | 181.67 | 1.26% | 2.26 | |
| SLV | 21.83 | 22.08 | 1.15% | 0.25 | |
| GDX | 32.02 | 32.74 | 2.25% | 0.72 | |
| 3 MONTH | US3M | 4.70 | 4.66 | -0.85% | -0.04 |
| 2 YR | US2Y | 4.21 | 4.09 | -2.85% | -0.12 |
| 5 YR | FVX | 3.638 | 3.495 | -3.93% | -1.43 |
| 10 YR | TNX | 3.529 | 3.397 | -3.74% | -1.32 |
| 30 YR | TYX | 3.661 | 3.547 | -3.11% | -1.14 |
| 10Y3M (10yr 3m spread) | -1.18 | -1.27 | -7.63% | -0.09 | |
| 10Y2Y (10yr 2yr spread) | -0.69 | -0.7 | -1.45% | -0.01 | |
| T2107 (% stock above 200MA) | 61.98 | 64.2 | 3.58% | 2.22 | |
| T2108 (% stock above 40 MA) | 78.63 | 80.06 | 1.82% | 1.43 | |
| AAPL | 144.29 | 145.43 | 0.79% | 1.14 | |
| MSFT | 247.81 | 252.75 | 1.99% | 4.94 | |
| AMZN | 103.13 | 105.15 | 1.96% | 2.02 | |
| GOOGL | 98.84 | 100.43 | 1.61% | 1.59 | |
| TSLA | 173.22 | 181.41 | 4.73% | 8.19 | |
| NVDA | 195.37 | 209.43 | 7.20% | 14.06 |
Dow +6.92 at 34092.91, Nasdaq +231.77 at 11816.33, S&P +42.61 at 4119.21
Today's trade looked a lot different at the open compared to where things ended up. The main indices moved mostly sideways, pinned below their flat lines, for the majority of the session as investors anxiously awaited the FOMC policy decision at 2:00 p.m. ET and Fed Chair Powell's press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET.
The market saw some whipsaw action immediately following the FOMC's unanimous decision to raise the target range for the fed funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.50-4.75%, as expected. The general tone shifted markedly, however, when Fed Chair Powell started speaking at 2:30 p.m. ET.
Mr. Powell acknowledged that the "Full effects of rapid tightening so far have yet to be felt and we have more work to do." He indicated that core services inflation is still running too high, which creates a basis for ongoing rate hikes. Overall, though, Mr. Powell was generally encouraging about the emerging signs of disinflation.
Importantly for market participants, he did not go out of his way to shoot down the recent rally effort by condemning loosening financial conditions and maintained that he thinks there is a path to getting inflation back down to 2.0% without a really significant economic decline or significant increase in unemployment.
The stock market surged to session highs during the press conference before ultimately pulling back and settling below those levels. The main indices all closed in positive territory, led by the Nasdaq with a 2.0% gain. The S&P 500 for its part closed above the 4,100 level.
Just about everything came along for the steep rise, but mega cap leadership was integral to index level gains. The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (MGK) closed with a 1.9% gain versus a 1.0% gain in the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) and a 1.1% gain in the S&P 500.
Semiconductors were another pocket of strength in the market today following a better-than-expected earnings report and better-than-feared outlook from Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 84.64, +9.49, +12.6%). The PHLX Semiconductor Index rose 5.2% by the close.
Ten of the 11 S&P 500 sectors closed with a gain, led by information technology (+2.3%), consumer discretionary (+1.9%), and communication services (+1.3%). The energy sector (-1.9%) was the lone holdout in negative territory as oil prices continued to retreat today. WTI crude oil futures fell 2.7% to $76.82/bbl.
Treasuries rallied following the FOMC decision and subsequent press conference. The 2-yr note yield, which is most sensitive to changes in the fed funds rate, fell ten basis points to 4.11%. The 10-yr note yield fell 13 basis points to 3.40%. The U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.9% to 101.18.
- Nasdaq Composite: +12.9% YTD
- Russell 2000: +11.3% YTD
- S&P Midcap 400: +10.9% YTD
- S&P 500: +7.3% YTD
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: +2.9% YTD
Reviewing today's economic data:
- Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index -9.0%; Prior 7.0%
- January ADP Employment Change 106K (Briefing.com consensus 170K); Prior was revised to 253K from 235K
- January IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI - Final 46.9; Prior 46.8
- December Construction Spending -0.4% (Briefing.com consensus 0.0%); Prior was revised to 0.5% from 0.2%
- The key takeaway from the report is that new single family construction continued to decline, clipped by higher interest rates that are making construction projects more expensive to finance at a time when broader economic activity is slowing due in part to the higher interest rates.
- January ISM Manufacturing Index 47.4% (Briefing.com consensus 48.0%); Prior 48.4%
- The key takeaway from the report is that manufacturing activity contracted in January for the third straight month, demonstrating that the cumulative effect of rate hikes around the globe is adversely impacting demand, evidenced by the fifth straight contraction in the new orders index.
- December JOLTS - Job Openings 11.012 mln; Prior was revised to 10.440 mln from 10.458 mln
Market participants will receive the following economic data tomorrow:
- 8:30 ET: Weekly Initial Claims (Briefing.com consensus 201,000; prior 186,000), Continuing Claims (prior 1.675 mln), preliminary Q4 Productivity (Briefing.com consensus 2.5%; prior 0.8%), and preliminary Q4 Unit Labor Costs (Briefing.com consensus 1.5%; prior 2.4%)
- 10:00 ET: December Factory Orders (Briefing.com consensus 2.2%; prior 1.0%)
- 10:30 ET: Weekly natural gas inventories (prior -91 bcf)
Cardinal Health (CAH), ConocoPhillips (COP), Merck (MRK), Bristol-Myers (BMY), Honeywell (HON), Eli Lilly (LLY), and Estee Lauder (EL) are among the more notable names reporting earnings ahead of tomorrow's open.
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