| 1/26/2023 | Previous Day's Closing Price | Today Close | % CHANGE SINCE THE PRE-TRADING DAY CLOSE | CHANGE SINCE PRE-TRADING DAY CLOSE | |
| SPX | .INX | 4016.22 | 4060.43 | 1.10% | 44.21 |
| SPY | 400.35 | 404.75 | 1.10% | 4.4 | |
| QQQ | 287.73 | 293.34 | 1.95% | 5.61 | |
| TQQQ | 21.44 | 22.68 | 5.78% | 1.24 | |
| SQQQ | 42.42 | 39.99 | -5.73% | -2.43 | |
| SOXX | 402.92 | 409.71 | 1.69% | 6.79 | |
| SOXL | 14.53 | 15.24 | 4.89% | 0.71 | |
| SOXS | 24.3 | 23.17 | -4.65% | -1.13 | |
| DIA | 337.32 | 339.36 | 0.60% | 2.04 | |
| RUSSELL 2000 | IWM | 187.45 | 188.56 | 0.59% | 1.11 |
| DOW TRANSPORTATION | IYT | 227.94 | 227.68 | -0.11% | -0.26 |
| FINANCIAL | XLF | 36.06 | 36.25 | 0.53% | 0.19 |
| ENERGY | XLE | 90.26 | 93.11 | 3.16% | 2.85 |
| BIOTECH | XBI | 88.9 | 88.59 | -0.35% | -0.31 |
| CONSUMER STAPLE | XLP | 73.33 | 73.07 | -0.35% | -0.26 |
| HEALTH CARE | XLV | 133.52 | 133.77 | 0.19% | 0.25 |
| CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY | XLY | 141.71 | 144.61 | 2.05% | 2.9 |
| HOMEBUILDER | XHB | 66.35 | 66.53 | 0.27% | 0.18 |
| UTILITY | XLU | 68.66 | 68.89 | 0.33% | 0.23 |
| RETAIL | XRT | 66.91 | 67.57 | 0.99% | 0.66 |
| EMERGING MARKETS | SPEM | 36.14 | 36.44 | 0.83% | 0.3 |
| SOUTH KOREA INDEX | EWY | 63.86 | 65.09 | 1.93% | 1.23 |
| SOUTH KOREA 3X BULL | KORU | 10.6 | 11.2 | 5.66% | 0.6 |
| ARKK | 37.51 | 38.27 | 2.03% | 0.76 | |
| BITCOIN | /BTC | 22970 | 23045 | 0.33% | 75 |
| CRUDE OIL | /CL | 80.57 | 81.1 | 0.66% | 0.53 |
| GLD | 181.11 | 179.47 | -0.91% | -1.64 | |
| SLV | 21.97 | 21.99 | 0.09% | 0.02 | |
| GDX | 33.25 | 32.76 | -1.47% | -0.49 | |
| 3 MONTH | US3M | 4.72 | 4.71 | -0.21% | -0.01 |
| 2 YR | US2Y | 4.12 | 4.17 | 1.21% | 0.05 |
| 5 YR | FVX | 3.561 | 3.588 | 0.76% | 0.27 |
| 10 YR | TNX | 3.462 | 3.493 | 0.90% | 0.31 |
| 30 YR | TYX | 3.623 | 3.628 | 0.14% | 0.05 |
| 10Y3M (10yr 3m spread) | -1.21 | -1.26 | 4.13% | -0.05 | |
| 10Y2Y (10yr 2yr spread) | -0.69 | -0.65 | 5.80% | 0.04 | |
| T2107 (% stock above 200MA) | 56.2 | 58.49 | 4.07% | 2.29 | |
| T2108 (% stock above 40 MA) | 73.3 | 74.87 | 2.14% | 1.57 | |
| AAPL | 141.86 | 143.96 | 1.48% | 2.1 | |
| MSFT | 240.61 | 248 | 3.07% | 7.39 | |
| AMZN | 97.18 | 99.22 | 2.10% | 2.04 | |
| GOOGL | 95.22 | 97.52 | 2.42% | 2.3 | |
| TSLA | 144.43 | 160.27 | 10.97% | 15.84 | |
| NVDA | 193.23 | 198.02 | 2.48% | 4.79 |
Dow +205.57 at 33949.36, Nasdaq +199.06 at 11512.42, S&P +44.21 at 4060.43
Today's trade shaped up to be decidedly positive after hitting an air pocket around mid-morning. The main indices moved higher right out of the gate following Tesla's (TSLA 160.27, +15.84, +11.0%) strong quarterly results and outlook, which drove a continued rebound in the mega cap space, and Chevron's (CVX 187.79, +8.71, +4.9%) massive $75 billion stock repurchase program announcement.
There was also a slate of pleasing data releases this morning that helped support the positive bias. Namely, the Advance Q4 GDP Report, weekly initial jobless claims, and December durable goods orders all came in better than expected.
Some eventual selling interest kicked in mid-morning, driven presumably by an awareness that this morning's strong data releases could prevent the Fed from pausing its rate hikes in the near future, along with a lingering sense that the market might be getting ahead of itself with the January rally.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, weighed down by IBM's (IBM 134.45, -6.31, -4.5%) earnings-driven weakness, and the S&P 500 slipped into negative territory at their intraday lows.
Nonetheless, equities once again proved to be resilient to selling efforts and the main indices resumed their upside charge. The bounce accelerated in the afternoon trade, likely driven by some short-covering activity and a fear of missing out on further gains, the indices closed at or near their highs for the session.
Mega cap leadership was an important support factor in today's turnaround. The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (MGK) rose 1.7% versus a 0.8% gain in the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) and a 1.1% gain in the S&P 500.
Ten of the 11 S&P 500 sectors logged a gain today led by energy (+3.3%), which was a reflection of Chevron's strong performance. The influential consumer discretionary (+2.0%), communication services (+1.7%), and information technology (+1.6%) sectors were also among the top performers.
The consumer staples sector (-0.3%) was the lone the laggard sporting a loss by the close.
- Nasdaq Composite: +10.0% YTD
- Russell 2000: +8.1% YTD
- S&P Midcap 400: +7.4% YTD
- S&P 500: +5.8% YTD
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: +2.4% YTD
Reviewing overnight developments:
- Q4 GDP-Adv. 2.9% (Briefing.com consensus 2.6%); Prior 3.2%; Q4 Chain Deflator-Adv. 3.5% (Briefing.com consensus 3.2%); Prior 4.4%
- The key takeaway from the report is that the economy was a long way from a recession in the fourth quarter, although consumer spending (and inflation) did moderate some.
- December Durable Orders 5.6% (Briefing.com consensus 2.9%); Prior was revised to -1.7% from -2.1%; December Durable Goods-ex transportation -0.1% (Briefing.com consensus -0.2%); Prior was revised to 0.1% from 0.2%
- The key takeaway from the report is that overall manufacturing activity was actually quite subdued in December, evidenced by the 0.2% decline in nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, which is a proxy for business spending.
- Weekly Initial Claims 186K (Briefing.com consensus 205K); Prior was revised to 192K from 190K; Weekly Continuing Claims 1.675 mln; Prior was revised to 1.655 mln from 1.647 mln
- The key takeaway from the report is that the low level of initial claims is indicative of a tight labor market, which is something that should keep the Fed concerned about wage pressures remaining persistently high.
- December Adv. Intl. Trade in Goods -$90.3 bln; Prior was revised to -$82.9 bln from -$83.3 bln
- December Adv. Retail Inventories 0.5%; Prior was revised to 0.0% from 0.1%
- December Adv. Wholesale Inventories 0.1%; Prior was revised to 0.9% from 1.0%
- December New Home Sales 616K (Briefing.com consensus 614K); Prior was revised to 602K from 640K
- The key takeaway from the report is that it reflects how the pullback in mortgage rates has spurred some renewed demand among home buyers; however, affordability and supply pressures remain for many prospective buyers and that is holding back overall sales.
American Express (AXP), Chevron (CVX), and Colgate-Palmolive (CL) are among the notable names reporting earnings ahead of tomorrow's open.
Looking ahead to Friday, market participants will receive the following economic data:
- 8:30 a.m. ET: December Personal Income (Briefing.com consensus +0.2%; prior +0.4%) and Spending (Briefing.com consensus -0.1%; prior +0.1%), PCE Price Index (Briefing.com consensus 0.0%; prior +0.1%) and core-PCE Price Index (Briefing.com consensus +0.3%; prior +0.2%)
- 10:00 a.m. ET: December Pending Homes Sales (Briefing.com consensus -1.0%; prior -4.0%), January University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - Final (Briefing.com consensus 64.6; prior 64.6)
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